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美国能源情报署预测到2040年美国核电占全球核电比例下降4个百分点

来源:中核战略规划研究总院 日期:2015年04月21日

[据世界核协会资讯网站2015年4月16日报道]美国能源情报署(EIA)发表的年度能源展望2015(AEO2015)预测,美国核能发电量占全球总核能发电量的比重,将会从2013年的19%降至2040年的15%(如果石油和天然气价格均居高不下)或18%(仅仅石油价格居高不下)。

根据AEO2015的说法,从2013年至2040年的用电量总额,包括电力企业产量和现场发电量,将以每年0.8%的速度递增,从38360亿千瓦时上升到47970亿千瓦时。其中,核电占有的比例相对平稳,主要原因在于现有核电设施的利用率较高,新设施的成本高且交付时间也长。

EIA表示,“2020年以前,新增发电容量550万千瓦,同时期的退役320万千瓦,2025年以后的新增核能发电容量350万千瓦,”“如果全球经济保持高速增长,且石油价格维持在高水平上,核电还会增加1000至1300万千瓦以满足需求”。(核信息院 沙治平)

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